François Fillon’s campaign is unravelling. Emmanuel Macron has closed the gap with the Republican candidate after damaging fraud allegations. Government bond spreads are widening across Europe reflecting the political uncertainty. A majority of French people want Fillon to pull out of the election.
Emmanuel Macron’s reform agenda is less contentious. However, Mr Macron stands a better chance of beating Marine Le Pen in May. The recovery in France and the Eurozone is gaining traction: defeating Ms Le Pen is more important than the pace of reform per se. Mr Macron may also face less opposition to his proposed changes.
Summary
- Reform agenda of Macron less ambitious
- But the independent candidate has a good chance of defeating Le Pen
- Even modest reforms will sustain improvement in French economy
