The y/y for real GDP growth accelerated in Q2 on the back of stronger services. This was in part due to base effects: the s.a. q/q rate slowed from 2.2%…
Relief at drop in headline inflation tempered by slow progress on core: food price hikes slow, as supermarkets and food manufacturers come under the spotlight for ‘greedflation’. Input costs are…
Much better inflation numbers helped Treasuries to rally, and longer-end has held on to most of these gains. Shorter-end has retraced somewhat. But real yields have fallen across the curve…
The frequency and intensify of shocks hitting the global economy has risen over the past two decades. Governments have repeatedly stepped in to act as ‘insurers of last resort’. With…
For the Fed, ‘one and done’ is a reasonable scenario from here, given the recent inflation prints in the US (and China). But there remains a high bar to rate…
Tighter bank lending standards have not hit the US corporate bond market. The NAHB housing market index climbed again, from 50 in May to 55 this month. Some prospective buyers…
Treasuries failed to stage major rally, even after encouraging CPI/PPI data and elevated initial claims. Breakeven inflation rates not falling, because they have already priced perfect disinflation (pages 2-10) Another…
