Ultimately, the decision by the US Treasury to skew increases in issuance towards tenors which have less sensitivity to term premium increases, could backfire. The “meaningful deviation” from the historical…
Read More
Real yields in the US converge around 2.5%. Against this backdrop the policy mix in Japan remains untenable. The reaction to the change in the BoJ’s YCC was telling. The…
There is every chance the BoJ could raise the ceiling on 10-year JGB yields tomorrow. All eyes are focussed on the escalating situation in the Middle East. Inflows into US government…
The 10-year US Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since 2007 this morning. Globally, there is a concerted need to get the public finances in order, to put…
Prime Minister Kishida’s popularity is in freefall, and the measures taken by the ruling coalition to bolster support, may become more desperate. In response to rising prices, Kishida is weighing…
Another weak 30-year Treasury bond auction was a timely reminder that the old playbooks may need to be adjusted to the new realities. There was a modest move back ‘into…
Non-farm payrolls jumped 336k in September (nearly double expectations of 171k). The average 3-month change for payrolls firmed to 266k. To put this into context: trend payroll job growth (the…
