The FOMC’s median estimate of the natural real interest rate remains pinned at 0.5%, allowing Fed Chair Powell to claim that policy is “well into restrictive territory”. But this is…
There is no evidence yet, that layoffs are climbing materially in the US. Unadjusted initial claims are still running below their 2017-2019 average (237k), years in which the labour market…
With a tail of 5.3 bps, last Thursday’s 30-year bond auction was a reminder: rising bond issuance poses a systemic threat for markets. Primary dealers had to accept 24.7% of…
The details of the most recent Quarterly Refunding were the catalyst for the slide in Treasury yields. A weaker ADP, and then payrolls, added to the rally. Nevertheless, primary dealers…
