The corporate health of US small businesses may not be as strong as the headline National Income & Product Accounts (NIPA) corporate profit figures suggest. The NFIB Small Business Optimism…
Average hourly earnings and hourly compensation data do not point to a squeeze on margins, for now. Nevertheless, the latest productivity & costs report for Q3 offered a warning. Non-farm…
The pressure on staff costs is intensifying. The ‘Great Resignation’ pushed the employment cost index up 1.36% q/q (3.75% y/y) in Q3. Retail trade saw the biggest annual rise, with…
After Sunday’s warning from Andrew Bailey that the BoE would “have to act” over inflation, this morning’s CPI report will provide markets with breathing space. The 2-year Gilt yield has…
The core CPI, excluding shelter has been benign over the last three months (see chart on page 4). The annualised rate for these three months is just 1.81%. The durables…
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