The recovery in healthcare payrolls was short-lived, up just 49.6k in 2021. To put this into context, the US added 335.6k healthcare jobs in 2019. Healthcare payrolls are still 2.73%…
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The last commentary of 2021 (US: Warning for equities in 2022, December 20th, 2021), noted that the unwind of many pandemic related price increases had proved to be short-lived. Price…
The Federal Reserve has shifted to a more hawkish stance, as expected, but the Fed’s outlook for PCE inflation and core PCE inflation remain overly ‘optimistic’. The unwind of many…
In the UK, Omicron infections are running at 200k a day, according to the UK Health Security Agency, based on new modelling. The spread of Omicron is very fast, and…
Two-year Treasuries rallied after Friday’s CPI report ostensibly because there was no inflation ‘surprise’. Crude oil has dropped 16.3% since October 26th. Omicron remains a risk: in the UK, further…
The rise in the renminbi this year has been striking, both on a trade-weighted basis (+8.25%) and against the dollar (+2.29%). The trade surplus remains at record levels. At the…
